ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	BAL	55.0%	83%	81.43	68.81	78.59	54.23	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR13 AB129 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp74°F Wind12 mph SW vs pitcher NameKyle Bradish HandR ERA4.83 HR/91.10
2	Aaron Judge ▸	NYY	BAL	44.9%	83%	78.94	39.55	78.59	54.23	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.427 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %28.6% Hard Hit %52.4% Launch Angle8.2° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up19.2% Blast %13.1% EV50— season HR16 AB153 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp74°F Wind12 mph SW vs pitcher NameKyle Bradish HandR ERA4.83 HR/91.10
3	Elly De La Cruz ▸	CIN	WSH	46.3%	83%	74.52	59.01	76.53	51.74	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.388 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %15.2% Hard Hit %52.2% Launch Angle13.1° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up24.6% Blast %16.7% EV50— season HR10 AB168 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp69°F Wind11 mph NW vs pitcher NameJake Irvin HandR ERA5.22 HR/91.13
4	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	SEA	46.3%	86%	80.04	70.42	97.25	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR13 AB159 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp87°F Wind5 mph E vs pitcher NameBryce Miller HandR ERA5.68 HR/91.69
5	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ▸	TOR	TB	43.8%	83%	78.75	69.72	59.58	50.00	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.4% Hard Hit %48.1% Launch Angle2.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.6 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %18.5% EV50— season HR2 AB154 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkRogers Centre HR Factor1.05 Temp57°F Wind16 mph W vs pitcher NameGriffin Jax HandR ERA5.00 HR/91.50
6	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	PHI	41.8%	86%	73.14	70.21	87.85	43.43	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR8 AB135 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp59°F Wind14 mph S vs pitcher NameAndrew Painter HandR ERA6.89 HR/91.65
7	James Wood ▸	WSH	CIN	46.6%	77%	80.28	73.01	80.00	51.74	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.401 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %23.8% Hard Hit %59.5% Launch Angle3.3° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up19.7% Blast %15.4% EV50— season HR12 AB160 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp69°F Wind11 mph NW vs pitcher NameNick Lodolo HandL ERA6.75 HR/93.38
8	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	BOS	46.3%	86%	80.15	70.42	67.57	42.62	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR17 AB157 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp59°F Wind14 mph S vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA3.54 HR/90.96
9	Nick Kurtz ▸	ATH	STL	44.5%	86%	68.76	66.01	69.41	55.05	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo97.9 mph Barrel %14.3% Hard Hit %60.7% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.9 mph Squared Up18.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR5 AB146 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp75°F Wind2 mph NW vs pitcher NameMatthew Liberatore HandL ERA4.07 HR/91.71
10	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	CIN	39.5%	77%	75.85	70.91	80.00	51.74	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR9 AB147 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp69°F Wind11 mph NW vs pitcher NameNick Lodolo HandL ERA6.75 HR/93.38
11	Trent Grisham ▸	NYY	BAL	44.4%	83%	67.25	36.75	64.87	54.23	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %12.8% Hard Hit %64.1% Launch Angle15.1° bat tracking Bat Speed69.5 mph Squared Up35.1% Blast %22.1% EV50— season HR6 AB135 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp74°F Wind12 mph SW vs pitcher NameKyle Bradish HandR ERA4.83 HR/91.10
12	Oneil Cruz ▸	PIT	COL	44.1%	83%	85.09	73.01	63.17	47.64	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.409 Exit Velo97.1 mph Barrel %20.5% Hard Hit %61.4% Launch Angle7.9° bat tracking Bat Speed78.5 mph Squared Up25.8% Blast %19.2% EV50— season HR10 AB169 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPNC Park HR Factor0.93 Temp65°F Wind10 mph W vs pitcher NameJose Quintana HandL ERA3.90 HR/91.50
13	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	CHC	37.9%	86%	67.51	66.01	36.50	56.94	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR14 AB163 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp77°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameShota Imanaga HandL ERA2.28 HR/90.76
14	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	CHC	33.6%	86%	68.10	63.21	36.50	56.94	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR7 AB132 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp77°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameShota Imanaga HandL ERA2.28 HR/90.76
15	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	ATH	36.5%	86%	86.93	52.64	72.62	55.05	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR11 AB151 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp75°F Wind2 mph NW vs pitcher NameJ.T. Ginn HandR ERA3.62 HR/91.21
16	Mike Trout ▸	LAA	CLE	39.6%	86%	79.50	73.01	36.75	42.18	30.91	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.481 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %28.3% Hard Hit %45.7% Launch Angle22.6° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.4% Blast %16.4% EV50— season HR11 AB149 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAngel Stadium HR Factor0.97 Temp58°F Wind17 mph W vs pitcher NameParker Messick HandL ERA2.30 HR/90.77
17	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	SEA	36.0%	86%	67.52	61.11	90.03	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR9 AB155 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp87°F Wind5 mph E vs pitcher NameBryce Miller HandR ERA5.68 HR/91.69
18	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	TEX	38.4%	86%	67.64	61.53	60.68	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR5 AB137 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp87°F Wind7 mph S vs pitcher NameKumar Rocker HandR ERA5.01 HR/91.11
19	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	WSH	36.5%	83%	77.16	39.55	77.87	51.74	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR10 AB160 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp69°F Wind11 mph NW vs pitcher NameJake Irvin HandR ERA5.22 HR/91.13
20	Otto Lopez ▸	MIA	MIN	36.4%	86%	67.49	66.01	73.77	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %13.2% Hard Hit %54.7% Launch Angle8.1° bat tracking Bat Speed72.5 mph Squared Up29.8% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR4 AB163 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp67°F Wind9 mph N vs pitcher NameSimeon Woods Richardson HandR ERA6.92 HR/91.85
21	Chase DeLauter ▸	CLE	LAA	35.5%	86%	80.33	70.42	45.67	42.18	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.418 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %17.8% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.2° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.0% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR6 AB140 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkProgressive Field HR Factor0.93 Temp58°F Wind17 mph W vs pitcher NameReid Detmers HandL ERA4.33 HR/90.62
22	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	SF	34.9%	83%	78.54	66.01	58.52	50.76	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR4 AB156 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp69°F Wind10 mph SW vs pitcher NameRobbie Ray HandL ERA2.76 HR/91.58
23	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	KC	36.1%	86%	72.67	63.21	59.14	38.43	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR15 AB145 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp52°F Wind9 mph N vs pitcher NameSeth Lugo HandR ERA3.21 HR/90.19
24	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	CHC	35.5%	86%	71.51	52.64	36.50	56.94	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR10 AB169 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp77°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameShota Imanaga HandL ERA2.28 HR/90.76
25	Dillon Dingler ▸	DET	NYM	34.6%	80%	79.48	70.42	49.96	48.29	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.428 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %57.9% Launch Angle7.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up31.4% Blast %15.1% EV50— season HR7 AB128 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp68°F Wind21 mph S vs pitcher NameChristian Scott HandR ERA3.27 HR/90.82

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