ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	ATL	53.2%	86%	81.43	68.81	55.00	60.27	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR31 AB412 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp88°F Wind13 mph SW vs pitcher NameChris Sale HandL ERA2.08 HR/90.62
2	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	TOR	53.0%	86%	80.15	70.42	100.00	60.84	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR33 AB411 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp88°F Wind11 mph W vs pitcher NameMax Scherzer HandR ERA7.92 HR/92.64
3	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	ATH	44.9%	86%	73.14	70.21	65.97	60.26	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR23 AB361 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp89°F Wind8 mph W vs pitcher NameGage Jump HandL ERA4.59 HR/90.94
4	Elly De La Cruz ▸	CIN	WSH	49.3%	86%	74.52	59.01	54.95	59.93	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.388 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %15.2% Hard Hit %52.2% Launch Angle13.1° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up24.6% Blast %16.7% EV50— season HR20 AB379 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp89°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NameAndrew Alvarez HandL ERA3.94 HR/90.28
5	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ▸	TOR	PHI	44.5%	86%	78.75	69.72	72.14	50.00	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.4% Hard Hit %48.1% Launch Angle2.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.6 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %18.5% EV50— season HR6 AB401 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkRogers Centre HR Factor1.05 Temp88°F Wind11 mph W vs pitcher NameAaron Nola HandR ERA5.55 HR/92.10
6	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	NYY	43.1%	86%	67.51	66.01	76.37	60.27	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR33 AB450 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp88°F Wind13 mph SW vs pitcher NameGerrit Cole HandR ERA3.42 HR/91.34
7	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	SD	44.5%	86%	80.04	70.42	67.29	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR35 AB418 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp83°F Wind12 mph NW vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.45 HR/90.97
8	Chase DeLauter ▸	CLE	CWS	42.1%	86%	80.33	70.42	53.57	60.67	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.418 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %17.8% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.2° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.0% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR12 AB371 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkProgressive Field HR Factor0.93 Temp83°F Wind2 mph N vs pitcher NameAnthony Kay HandL ERA4.01 HR/91.15
9	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	NYY	39.6%	86%	68.10	63.21	65.34	60.27	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR20 AB418 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp88°F Wind13 mph SW vs pitcher NameGerrit Cole HandR ERA3.42 HR/91.34
10	Trent Grisham ▸	NYY	ATL	37.5%	86%	67.25	36.75	35.15	60.27	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %12.8% Hard Hit %64.1% Launch Angle15.1° bat tracking Bat Speed69.5 mph Squared Up35.1% Blast %22.1% EV50— season HR12 AB330 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp88°F Wind13 mph SW vs pitcher NameChris Sale HandL ERA2.08 HR/90.62
11	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	COL	42.5%	86%	86.93	52.64	86.58	60.54	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR22 AB436 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp88°F Wind5 mph S vs pitcher NameKyle Freeland HandL ERA6.81 HR/91.74
12	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	CIN	43.7%	83%	75.85	70.91	58.92	52.80	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR28 AB429 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind5 mph SW vs pitcher NameChase Burns HandR ERA2.35 HR/90.99
13	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	SD	31.6%	86%	76.01	63.91	51.23	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR15 AB378 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp83°F Wind12 mph NW vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.45 HR/90.97
14	Garrett Mitchell ▸	MIL	MIN	34.7%	86%	77.14	61.11	50.38	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.387 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %19.0% Hard Hit %61.9% Launch Angle8.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up18.2% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR8 AB335 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp80°F Wind9 mph W vs pitcher NameTaj Bradley HandR ERA3.69 HR/91.21
15	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	WSH	39.4%	86%	77.16	39.55	55.32	59.93	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR25 AB436 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp89°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NameAndrew Alvarez HandL ERA3.94 HR/90.28
16	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	NYY	40.7%	86%	71.51	52.64	69.03	60.27	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR20 AB362 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp88°F Wind13 mph SW vs pitcher NameGerrit Cole HandR ERA3.42 HR/91.34
17	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	HOU	39.2%	86%	69.71	63.91	39.59	62.10	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR10 AB452 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp83°F Wind12 mph NW vs pitcher NamePeter Lambert HandR ERA3.06 HR/90.91
18	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	LAD	37.5%	86%	67.64	61.53	47.79	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR16 AB425 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp101°F Wind35 mph NE vs pitcher NameYoshinobu Yamamoto HandR ERA2.76 HR/91.01
19	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	SD	32.4%	86%	67.52	61.11	57.80	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR22 AB420 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp83°F Wind12 mph NW vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.45 HR/90.97
20	Hunter Goodman ▸	COL	STL	33.4%	86%	41.14	22.75	91.16	60.54	100.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.289 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %48.5% Launch Angle24.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.7 mph Squared Up14.7% Blast %7.3% EV50— season HR33 AB397 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCoors Field HR Factor1.50 Temp88°F Wind5 mph S vs pitcher NameMatthew Liberatore HandL ERA4.97 HR/91.57
21	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	ARI	34.9%	86%	78.54	66.01	49.05	52.66	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR15 AB427 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp101°F Wind35 mph NE vs pitcher NameBrandon Pfaadt HandR ERA3.66 HR/90.92
22	Bryce Harper ▸	PHI	TOR	34.8%	86%	68.02	41.65	92.78	60.84	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.424 Exit Velo88.9 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up24.8% Blast %10.6% EV50— season HR24 AB412 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp88°F Wind11 mph W vs pitcher NameMax Scherzer HandR ERA7.92 HR/92.64
23	Dillon Dingler ▸	DET	SF	34.4%	86%	79.48	70.42	62.42	49.30	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.428 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %57.9% Launch Angle7.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up31.4% Blast %15.1% EV50— season HR26 AB407 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp67°F Wind9 mph W vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA4.34 HR/90.68
24	Alec Burleson ▸	STL	COL	32.9%	86%	77.15	43.75	82.58	60.54	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.422 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %12.1% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle12.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.2% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR18 AB438 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp88°F Wind5 mph S vs pitcher NameKyle Freeland HandL ERA6.81 HR/91.74
25	Yandy Díaz ▸	TB	SEA	37.2%	86%	62.87	66.71	53.02	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.365 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %7.3% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle5.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up30.7% Blast %20.8% EV50— season HR15 AB429 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTropicana Field HR Factor0.95 Temp78°F Wind6 mph N vs pitcher NameGeorge Kirby HandR ERA3.76 HR/91.06

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