ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Elly De La Cruz ▸	CIN	TOR	47.6%	83%	74.52	59.01	90.56	53.65	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.388 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %15.2% Hard Hit %52.2% Launch Angle13.1° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up24.6% Blast %16.7% EV50— season HR30 AB555 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp72°F Wind8 mph N vs pitcher NameMax Scherzer HandR ERA6.14 HR/91.74
2	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	ATH	45.9%	80%	80.04	70.42	90.25	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR42 AB563 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp63°F Wind5 mph S vs pitcher NameSeth Johnson HandR ERA6.19 HR/91.41
3	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	TB	45.9%	86%	80.15	70.42	68.07	47.03	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR45 AB577 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp63°F Wind16 mph N vs pitcher NameNick Martinez HandR ERA2.94 HR/91.12
4	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	CHC	43.3%	86%	73.14	70.21	84.06	43.06	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR27 AB446 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp59°F Wind16 mph NE vs pitcher NameShota Imanaga HandL ERA3.74 HR/91.77
5	James Wood ▸	WSH	NYM	46.9%	83%	80.28	73.01	80.32	52.80	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.401 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %23.8% Hard Hit %59.5% Launch Angle3.3° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up19.7% Blast %15.4% EV50— season HR30 AB510 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind5 mph SW vs pitcher NameSean Manaea HandL ERA4.67 HR/91.43
6	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	MIA	43.1%	86%	67.51	66.01	71.67	61.41	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR41 AB623 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp87°F Wind3 mph NW vs pitcher NameJanson Junk HandR ERA4.31 HR/91.06
7	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	NYM	39.6%	83%	75.85	70.91	77.07	52.80	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR33 AB575 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind5 mph SW vs pitcher NameSean Manaea HandL ERA4.67 HR/91.43
8	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	COL	41.3%	83%	72.67	63.21	100.00	50.24	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR35 AB450 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp69°F Wind5 mph NE vs pitcher NameKyle Freeland HandL ERA6.58 HR/91.85
9	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	ATH	31.2%	80%	76.01	63.91	75.02	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR21 AB506 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp63°F Wind5 mph S vs pitcher NameSeth Johnson HandR ERA6.19 HR/91.41
10	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	TOR	37.9%	83%	77.16	39.55	88.90	53.65	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR32 AB619 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp72°F Wind8 mph N vs pitcher NameMax Scherzer HandR ERA6.14 HR/91.74
11	Garrett Mitchell ▸	MIL	STL	40.2%	83%	77.14	61.11	37.41	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.387 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %19.0% Hard Hit %61.9% Launch Angle8.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up18.2% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR11 AB458 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp68°F Wind4 mph E vs pitcher NameAndre Pallante HandR ERA3.61 HR/90.63
12	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	ATH	32.2%	80%	67.52	61.11	79.18	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR28 AB568 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp63°F Wind5 mph S vs pitcher NameSeth Johnson HandR ERA6.19 HR/91.41
13	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	SD	33.5%	83%	67.64	61.53	56.58	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR22 AB579 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp75°F Wind5 mph W vs pitcher NameRandy Vásquez HandR ERA4.01 HR/91.07
14	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	MIL	37.3%	83%	86.93	52.64	44.64	49.97	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR29 AB605 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp68°F Wind4 mph E vs pitcher NameJacob Misiorowski HandR ERA1.86 HR/90.74
15	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	SF	33.2%	80%	78.54	66.01	72.98	43.13	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR16 AB576 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp59°F Wind8 mph SW vs pitcher NameCarson Seymour HandR ERA4.70 HR/91.76
16	Josh Bell ▸	MIN	TEX	32.5%	86%	51.60	63.91	57.44	44.58	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.351 Exit Velo89.6 mph Barrel %11.4% Hard Hit %47.7% Launch Angle17.9° bat tracking Bat Speed71.2 mph Squared Up22.9% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR20 AB566 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTarget Field HR Factor1.02 Temp61°F Wind1 mph E vs pitcher NameMacKenzie Gore HandL ERA4.59 HR/91.00
17	Hunter Goodman ▸	COL	CWS	30.4%	86%	41.14	22.75	80.34	50.24	100.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.289 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %48.5% Launch Angle24.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.7 mph Squared Up14.7% Blast %7.3% EV50— season HR41 AB515 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCoors Field HR Factor1.50 Temp69°F Wind5 mph NE vs pitcher NameAnthony Kay HandL ERA4.53 HR/91.24
18	Dominic Canzone ▸	SEA	LAA	30.2%	86%	73.45	59.01	62.91	50.00	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.386 Exit Velo94.1 mph Barrel %13.8% Hard Hit %48.3% Launch Angle27.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.6 mph Squared Up32.3% Blast %17.7% EV50— season HR23 AB473 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkT-Mobile Park HR Factor0.89 Temp53°F Wind10 mph N vs pitcher NameYusei Kikuchi HandL ERA4.88 HR/91.01
19	Max Muncy ▸	LAD	SF	26.4%	80%	64.69	63.91	88.83	43.13	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.378 Exit Velo92.6 mph Barrel %17.6% Hard Hit %55.9% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed71.6 mph Squared Up21.8% Blast %7.9% EV50— season HR29 AB485 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp59°F Wind8 mph SW vs pitcher NameCarson Seymour HandR ERA4.70 HR/91.76
20	Andy Pages ▸	LAD	SF	24.8%	80%	60.89	66.01	80.46	43.13	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %8.9% Hard Hit %55.6% Launch Angle19.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.9 mph Squared Up20.8% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR22 AB508 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp59°F Wind8 mph SW vs pitcher NameCarson Seymour HandR ERA4.70 HR/91.76
21	Kevin McGonigle ▸	DET	PIT	28.9%	83%	61.53	66.01	51.31	53.27	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.411 Exit Velo88.1 mph Barrel %9.4% Hard Hit %37.7% Launch Angle19.5° bat tracking Bat Speed71.4 mph Squared Up33.7% Blast %11.5% EV50— season HR17 AB602 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp72°F Wind7 mph N vs pitcher NameJared Jones HandR ERA3.87 HR/91.11
22	Ian Happ ▸	CHC	BOS	26.9%	86%	56.81	45.92	86.16	43.06	47.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.330 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %18.4% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.1 mph Squared Up19.6% Blast %14.0% EV50— season HR24 AB541 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp59°F Wind16 mph NE vs pitcher NameTanner Houck HandR ERA8.04 HR/92.06
23	Spencer Torkelson ▸	DET	PIT	23.1%	83%	59.57	63.21	62.76	53.27	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.378 Exit Velo89.8 mph Barrel %9.7% Hard Hit %48.4% Launch Angle16.2° bat tracking Bat Speed73.6 mph Squared Up21.6% Blast %11.4% EV50— season HR26 AB525 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp72°F Wind7 mph N vs pitcher NameJared Jones HandR ERA3.87 HR/91.11
24	Gunnar Henderson ▸	BAL	NYY	27.4%	86%	50.24	54.11	55.27	45.75	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.326 Exit Velo90.6 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %46.9% Launch Angle18.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up20.6% Blast %9.9% EV50— season HR24 AB623 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkOriole Park at Camden Yards HR Factor1.02 Temp63°F Wind13 mph NE vs pitcher NameElmer Rodríguez HandR ERA5.40 HR/90.67
25	Bryce Harper ▸	PHI	TB	27.1%	86%	68.02	41.65	56.82	47.03	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.424 Exit Velo88.9 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up24.8% Blast %10.6% EV50— season HR28 AB572 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp63°F Wind16 mph N vs pitcher NameNick Martinez HandR ERA2.94 HR/91.12

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