ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	CWS	55.0%	86%	81.43	68.81	74.62	61.53	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR20 AB247 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp84°F Wind19 mph W vs pitcher NameSean Burke HandR ERA4.15 HR/91.10
2	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	NYM	50.3%	80%	80.15	70.42	78.30	62.17	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR25 AB269 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp86°F Wind17 mph W vs pitcher NameSean Manaea HandL ERA4.78 HR/91.10
3	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	TOR	43.4%	86%	73.14	70.21	59.63	55.19	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR16 AB245 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp75°F Wind19 mph S vs pitcher NameTrey Yesavage HandR ERA3.78 HR/90.57
4	Francisco Alvarez ▸	NYM	PHI	33.1%	86%	77.17	70.21	77.29	62.17	29.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.465 Exit Velo89.6 mph Barrel %22.2% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle6.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up26.2% Blast %15.5% EV50— season HR5 AB137 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCiti Field HR Factor0.96 Temp86°F Wind17 mph W vs pitcher NameAaron Nola HandR ERA5.86 HR/91.66
5	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ▸	TOR	BOS	44.1%	86%	78.75	69.72	32.99	50.00	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.4% Hard Hit %48.1% Launch Angle2.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.6 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %18.5% EV50— season HR3 AB254 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkRogers Centre HR Factor1.05 Temp75°F Wind19 mph S vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA3.03 HR/90.87
6	Nick Kurtz ▸	ATH	LAA	43.8%	70%	68.76	66.01	75.53	51.56	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo97.9 mph Barrel %14.3% Hard Hit %60.7% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.9 mph Squared Up18.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR18 AB264 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp70°F Wind18 mph SW vs pitcher NameTBD HandR ERA4.20 HR/91.15
7	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	SF	35.5%	83%	67.51	66.01	65.15	57.81	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR20 AB286 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp79°F Wind8 mph S vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA4.24 HR/90.48
8	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	SF	34.1%	83%	68.10	63.21	56.47	57.81	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR14 AB245 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp79°F Wind8 mph S vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA4.24 HR/90.48
9	Josh Bell ▸	MIN	TEX	34.6%	86%	51.60	63.91	65.43	58.12	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.351 Exit Velo89.6 mph Barrel %11.4% Hard Hit %47.7% Launch Angle17.9° bat tracking Bat Speed71.2 mph Squared Up22.9% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR8 AB262 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTarget Field HR Factor1.02 Temp91°F Wind9 mph SE vs pitcher NameJack Leiter HandR ERA4.86 HR/91.42
10	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	KC	37.2%	83%	86.93	52.64	67.40	53.35	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR18 AB281 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp72°F Wind7 mph NW vs pitcher NameNoah Cameron HandL ERA4.11 HR/91.03
11	Garrett Mitchell ▸	MIL	CLE	30.6%	83%	77.14	61.11	34.57	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.387 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %19.0% Hard Hit %61.9% Launch Angle8.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up18.2% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR5 AB193 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp69°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameParker Messick HandL ERA2.68 HR/90.89
12	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	SF	30.8%	83%	71.51	52.64	62.76	57.81	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR14 AB198 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp79°F Wind8 mph S vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA4.24 HR/90.48
13	Bryce Harper ▸	PHI	NYM	33.6%	80%	68.02	41.65	69.62	62.17	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.424 Exit Velo88.9 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up24.8% Blast %10.6% EV50— season HR15 AB255 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp86°F Wind17 mph W vs pitcher NameSean Manaea HandL ERA4.78 HR/91.10
14	Gary Sánchez ▸	MIL	CLE	28.5%	83%	75.50	52.64	40.80	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.452 Exit Velo91.4 mph Barrel %29.4% Hard Hit %52.9% Launch Angle27.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up21.3% Blast %12.8% EV50— season HR7 AB111 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp69°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameParker Messick HandL ERA2.68 HR/90.89
15	Juan Soto ▸	NYM	PHI	31.5%	86%	35.86	56.91	95.75	62.17	29.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.322 Exit Velo87.3 mph Barrel %8.0% Hard Hit %28.0% Launch Angle3.9° bat tracking Bat Speed72.2 mph Squared Up22.8% Blast %10.5% EV50— season HR15 AB209 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCiti Field HR Factor0.96 Temp86°F Wind17 mph W vs pitcher NameAaron Nola HandR ERA5.86 HR/91.66
16	Dominic Canzone ▸	SEA	BAL	29.0%	83%	73.45	59.01	63.77	50.00	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.386 Exit Velo94.1 mph Barrel %13.8% Hard Hit %48.3% Launch Angle27.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.6 mph Squared Up32.3% Blast %17.7% EV50— season HR11 AB167 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkT-Mobile Park HR Factor0.89 Temp66°F Wind9 mph N vs pitcher NameShane Baz HandR ERA4.06 HR/90.88
17	Carlos Cortes ▸	ATH	LAA	24.9%	70%	67.52	43.75	59.45	51.56	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.414 Exit Velo88.4 mph Barrel %13.0% Hard Hit %43.5% Launch Angle4.6° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up30.8% Blast %20.5% EV50— season HR6 AB173 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp70°F Wind18 mph SW vs pitcher NameTBD HandR ERA4.20 HR/91.15
18	Alec Burleson ▸	STL	KC	27.2%	83%	77.15	43.75	55.50	53.35	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.422 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %12.1% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle12.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.2% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR13 AB281 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp72°F Wind7 mph NW vs pitcher NameNoah Cameron HandL ERA4.11 HR/91.03
19	Daniel Schneemann ▸	CLE	MIL	30.3%	80%	56.35	63.21	35.45	50.87	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.351 Exit Velo91.6 mph Barrel %10.3% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle11.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.6 mph Squared Up25.6% Blast %11.5% EV50— season HR6 AB184 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkProgressive Field HR Factor0.93 Temp69°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameShane Drohan HandL ERA3.59 HR/90.63
20	Gunnar Henderson ▸	BAL	SEA	30.1%	83%	50.24	54.11	61.00	48.62	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.326 Exit Velo90.6 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %46.9% Launch Angle18.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up20.6% Blast %9.9% EV50— season HR15 AB307 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkOriole Park at Camden Yards HR Factor1.02 Temp66°F Wind9 mph N vs pitcher NameBryan Woo HandR ERA4.28 HR/90.99
21	Dominic Smith ▸	ATL	SF	24.5%	83%	62.80	43.75	48.17	57.81	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.443 Exit Velo91.5 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %42.4% Launch Angle10.8° bat tracking Bat Speed68.2 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %10.1% EV50— season HR6 AB159 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp79°F Wind8 mph S vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA4.24 HR/90.48
22	Ryan McMahon ▸	NYY	CWS	22.4%	86%	40.81	18.55	55.89	61.53	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.272 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %8.3% Hard Hit %54.2% Launch Angle4.1° bat tracking Bat Speed73.5 mph Squared Up23.3% Blast %9.6% EV50— season HR7 AB177 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp84°F Wind19 mph W vs pitcher NameSean Burke HandR ERA4.15 HR/91.10
23	Tyler Soderstrom ▸	ATH	LAA	27.1%	70%	45.52	49.21	64.89	51.56	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.319 Exit Velo89.7 mph Barrel %8.3% Hard Hit %43.8% Launch Angle9.0° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up22.9% Blast %11.0% EV50— season HR12 AB260 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp70°F Wind18 mph SW vs pitcher NameTBD HandR ERA4.20 HR/91.15
24	Shea Langeliers ▸	ATH	LAA	27.9%	70%	54.87	43.12	73.69	51.56	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.349 Exit Velo93.2 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle24.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.6 mph Squared Up17.3% Blast %8.7% EV50— season HR18 AB279 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp70°F Wind18 mph SW vs pitcher NameTBD HandR ERA4.20 HR/91.15
25	Colson Montgomery ▸	CWS	NYY	25.7%	86%	25.47	47.11	91.68	61.53	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.270 Exit Velo85.4 mph Barrel %10.3% Hard Hit %28.2% Launch Angle26.2° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up10.3% Blast %8.6% EV50— season HR19 AB253 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp84°F Wind19 mph W vs pitcher NameRyan Weathers HandL ERA4.36 HR/91.82

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