ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	BOS	39.2%	82%	81.43	68.81	63.34	44.19	92.73	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR41 AB573 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA3.03 HR/90.91
2	Luis García Jr. ▸	NYY	BOS	32.2%	82%	51.89	54.11	57.56	44.19	92.73	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.333 Exit Velo90.8 mph Barrel %8.5% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.5° bat tracking Bat Speed73.4 mph Squared Up27.4% Blast %14.7% EV50— season HR30 AB516 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA3.03 HR/90.91
3	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	CWS	32.2%	73%	80.04	70.42	55.00	50.00	36.36	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR42 AB567 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameHagen Smith HandL ERA1.29 HR/90.32
4	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	NYY	31.9%	82%	73.14	70.21	49.75	44.19	49.09	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR27 AB448 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NameCam Schlittler HandR ERA1.95 HR/90.74
5	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	HOU	31.8%	73%	72.67	63.21	74.77	56.26	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR35 AB454 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp77°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameAJ Blubaugh HandR ERA3.66 HR/91.22
6	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	ATL	31.8%	82%	80.15	70.42	55.00	41.15	45.45	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR45 AB581 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp57°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameChris Sale HandL ERA2.16 HR/90.55
7	Amed Rosario ▸	NYY	BOS	30.4%	82%	71.10	41.65	50.40	44.19	92.73	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.433 Exit Velo90.0 mph Barrel %16.0% Hard Hit %40.0% Launch Angle13.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up23.7% Blast %11.9% EV50— season HR10 AB227 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA3.03 HR/90.91
8	Ronald Acuña Jr. ▸	ATL	PHI	28.8%	82%	69.74	70.21	47.94	41.15	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.405 Exit Velo88.0 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %43.6% Launch Angle15.0° bat tracking Bat Speed75.5 mph Squared Up21.4% Blast %13.7% EV50— season HR20 AB408 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp57°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameJesús Luzardo HandL ERA2.86 HR/90.75
9	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	CWS	28.6%	73%	76.01	63.91	39.61	50.00	36.36	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR21 AB510 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameHagen Smith HandL ERA1.29 HR/90.32
10	Michael Conforto ▸	CHC	SD	28.0%	82%	63.15	61.11	57.35	47.05	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.392 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %8.3% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle12.7° bat tracking Bat Speed72.9 mph Squared Up20.0% Blast %10.0% EV50— season HR15 AB271 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp64°F Wind2 mph E vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.21 HR/90.97
11	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	PHI	27.3%	82%	67.51	66.01	55.44	41.15	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR41 AB625 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp57°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameJesús Luzardo HandL ERA2.86 HR/90.75
12	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	CWS	26.4%	73%	67.52	61.11	43.39	50.00	36.36	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR29 AB571 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameHagen Smith HandL ERA1.29 HR/90.32
13	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	PHI	25.6%	82%	68.10	63.21	43.12	41.15	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR26 AB591 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp57°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameJesús Luzardo HandL ERA2.86 HR/90.75
14	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	CHC	24.5%	82%	69.71	63.91	56.19	47.05	21.82	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR25 AB626 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp64°F Wind2 mph E vs pitcher NameMatthew Boyd HandL ERA3.91 HR/91.07
15	Cody Bellinger ▸	NYY	BOS	24.1%	82%	35.43	40.74	45.23	44.19	92.73	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.323 Exit Velo87.0 mph Barrel %7.8% Hard Hit %39.2% Launch Angle22.2° bat tracking Bat Speed69.8 mph Squared Up30.1% Blast %6.8% EV50— season HR17 AB496 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA3.03 HR/90.91
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr. ▸	NYY	BOS	24.1%	82%	20.29	47.11	46.07	44.19	92.73	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.198 Exit Velo88.1 mph Barrel %4.8% Hard Hit %33.3% Launch Angle16.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.7 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %7.8% EV50— season HR19 AB471 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA3.03 HR/90.91
17	Austin Wells ▸	NYY	BOS	22.6%	82%	56.02	27.65	48.34	44.19	92.73	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.325 Exit Velo93.5 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %54.5% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed73.5 mph Squared Up26.4% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR14 AB334 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA3.03 HR/90.91
18	Carson Kelly ▸	CHC	SD	22.5%	82%	79.82	41.65	44.05	47.05	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.427 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.5% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed70.6 mph Squared Up38.3% Blast %23.5% EV50— season HR10 AB380 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp64°F Wind2 mph E vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.21 HR/90.97
19	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	PHI	22.1%	82%	71.51	52.64	44.69	41.15	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR25 AB549 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp57°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameJesús Luzardo HandL ERA2.86 HR/90.75
20	Ian Happ ▸	CHC	SD	20.7%	82%	56.81	45.92	51.83	47.05	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.330 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %18.4% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.1 mph Squared Up19.6% Blast %14.0% EV50— season HR24 AB546 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp64°F Wind2 mph E vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.21 HR/90.97
21	Ceddanne Rafaela ▸	BOS	NYY	19.4%	82%	37.75	54.11	35.55	44.19	49.09	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.326 Exit Velo88.7 mph Barrel %7.9% Hard Hit %36.8% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed69.6 mph Squared Up30.8% Blast %7.7% EV50— season HR16 AB541 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp61°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NameCam Schlittler HandR ERA1.95 HR/90.74
22	Bryce Harper ▸	PHI	ATL	18.4%	82%	68.02	41.65	43.12	41.15	45.45	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.424 Exit Velo88.9 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up24.8% Blast %10.6% EV50— season HR29 AB577 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp57°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameChris Sale HandL ERA2.16 HR/90.55
23	Matt Shaw ▸	CHC	SD	18.3%	82%	30.86	52.01	43.29	47.05	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.319 Exit Velo87.6 mph Barrel %8.1% Hard Hit %32.4% Launch Angle12.1° bat tracking Bat Speed68.0 mph Squared Up28.6% Blast %6.6% EV50— season HR5 AB173 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp64°F Wind2 mph E vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.21 HR/90.97
24	Dansby Swanson ▸	CHC	SD	18.2%	82%	53.46	40.74	52.63	47.05	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.338 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %13.5% Hard Hit %56.8% Launch Angle13.4° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up25.0% Blast %9.6% EV50— season HR19 AB428 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp64°F Wind2 mph E vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.21 HR/90.97
25	Colson Montgomery ▸	CWS	HOU	17.7%	73%	25.47	47.11	66.22	56.26	40.00	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.270 Exit Velo85.4 mph Barrel %10.3% Hard Hit %28.2% Launch Angle26.2° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up10.3% Blast %8.6% EV50— season HR31 AB568 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp77°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameAJ Blubaugh HandR ERA3.66 HR/91.22

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