ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Elly De La Cruz ▸	CIN	HOU	45.5%	83%	74.52	59.01	98.33	51.27	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.388 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %15.2% Hard Hit %52.2% Launch Angle13.1° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up24.6% Blast %16.7% EV50— season HR10 AB151 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp70°F Wind12 mph SW vs pitcher NameMike Burrows HandR ERA5.97 HR/91.91
2	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	COL	46.1%	80%	80.15	70.42	66.63	48.26	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR12 AB139 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp66°F Wind14 mph W vs pitcher NameChase Dollander HandR ERA3.38 HR/90.96
3	James Wood ▸	WSH	MIA	47.6%	83%	80.28	73.01	57.92	59.37	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.401 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %23.8% Hard Hit %59.5% Launch Angle3.3° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up19.7% Blast %15.4% EV50— season HR10 AB144 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp89°F Wind14 mph SE vs pitcher NameRobby Snelling HandL ERA4.20 HR/91.15
4	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ▸	TOR	LAA	43.0%	86%	78.75	69.72	45.38	50.00	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.4% Hard Hit %48.1% Launch Angle2.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.6 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %18.5% EV50— season HR2 AB135 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkRogers Centre HR Factor1.05 Temp57°F Wind9 mph S vs pitcher NameReid Detmers HandL ERA4.28 HR/90.68
5	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	MIA	40.4%	83%	75.85	70.91	57.92	59.37	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR9 AB131 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp89°F Wind14 mph SE vs pitcher NameRobby Snelling HandL ERA4.20 HR/91.15
6	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	TB	43.9%	80%	73.14	70.21	53.10	45.20	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR8 AB133 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp61°F Wind15 mph W vs pitcher NameJesse Scholtens HandR ERA3.18 HR/90.79
7	Aaron Judge ▸	NYY	MIL	41.9%	86%	78.94	39.55	63.23	46.71	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.427 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %28.6% Hard Hit %52.4% Launch Angle8.2° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up19.2% Blast %13.1% EV50— season HR15 AB137 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp64°F Wind7 mph SW vs pitcher NameJacob Misiorowski HandR ERA2.84 HR/90.95
8	Nick Kurtz ▸	ATH	BAL	44.6%	86%	68.76	66.01	66.74	50.51	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo97.9 mph Barrel %14.3% Hard Hit %60.7% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.9 mph Squared Up18.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR5 AB131 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp69°F Wind11 mph W vs pitcher NameKyle Bradish HandR ERA5.03 HR/91.32
9	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	LAD	40.8%	83%	67.51	66.01	96.92	48.44	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR13 AB146 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp66°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameEmmet Sheehan HandR ERA5.23 HR/91.74
10	Oneil Cruz ▸	PIT	SF	36.3%	73%	85.09	73.01	71.49	42.94	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.409 Exit Velo97.1 mph Barrel %20.5% Hard Hit %61.4% Launch Angle7.9° bat tracking Bat Speed78.5 mph Squared Up25.8% Blast %19.2% EV50— season HR9 AB151 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPNC Park HR Factor0.93 Temp59°F Wind13 mph W vs pitcher NameTBD HandR ERA4.20 HR/91.15
11	Mike Trout ▸	LAA	TOR	40.8%	86%	79.50	73.01	58.21	41.49	30.91	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.481 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %28.3% Hard Hit %45.7% Launch Angle22.6° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.4% Blast %16.4% EV50— season HR11 AB131 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAngel Stadium HR Factor0.97 Temp57°F Wind9 mph S vs pitcher NameDylan Cease HandR ERA3.05 HR/90.23
12	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	LAD	37.3%	83%	68.10	63.21	86.92	48.44	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR7 AB115 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp66°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameEmmet Sheehan HandR ERA5.23 HR/91.74
13	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	SEA	40.1%	86%	72.67	63.21	75.78	46.41	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR14 AB131 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp64°F Wind4 mph SE vs pitcher NameEmerson Hancock HandR ERA2.59 HR/91.51
14	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	CIN	35.0%	83%	76.01	63.91	53.84	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR4 AB128 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp70°F Wind12 mph SW vs pitcher NameNick Lodolo HandL ERA3.33 HR/91.26
15	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	HOU	36.3%	83%	77.16	39.55	100.00	51.27	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR10 AB143 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp70°F Wind12 mph SW vs pitcher NameMike Burrows HandR ERA5.97 HR/91.91
16	Trent Grisham ▸	NYY	MIL	40.4%	86%	67.25	36.75	46.09	46.71	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %12.8% Hard Hit %64.1% Launch Angle15.1° bat tracking Bat Speed69.5 mph Squared Up35.1% Blast %22.1% EV50— season HR5 AB121 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp64°F Wind7 mph SW vs pitcher NameJacob Misiorowski HandR ERA2.84 HR/90.95
17	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	SD	35.6%	77%	86.93	52.64	82.50	50.27	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR10 AB136 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp69°F Wind7 mph W vs pitcher NameGriffin Canning HandR ERA1.80 HR/91.80
18	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	NYM	35.5%	86%	67.64	61.53	40.60	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR5 AB121 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp93°F Wind11 mph W vs pitcher NameNolan McLean HandR ERA2.97 HR/90.46
19	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	CIN	33.6%	83%	67.52	61.11	53.84	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR9 AB137 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp70°F Wind12 mph SW vs pitcher NameNick Lodolo HandL ERA3.33 HR/91.26
20	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	LAD	37.8%	83%	71.51	52.64	89.70	48.44	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR9 AB155 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp66°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameEmmet Sheehan HandR ERA5.23 HR/91.74
21	Yandy Díaz ▸	TB	BOS	37.5%	86%	62.87	66.71	56.52	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.365 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %7.3% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle5.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up30.7% Blast %20.8% EV50— season HR5 AB133 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTropicana Field HR Factor0.95 Temp61°F Wind15 mph W vs pitcher NameConnelly Early HandL ERA3.79 HR/91.26
22	Otto Lopez ▸	MIA	WSH	35.9%	86%	67.49	66.01	45.75	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %13.2% Hard Hit %54.7% Launch Angle8.1° bat tracking Bat Speed72.5 mph Squared Up29.8% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR4 AB147 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp89°F Wind14 mph SE vs pitcher NameFoster Griffin HandL ERA2.27 HR/91.13
23	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	ATL	33.0%	83%	78.54	66.01	44.25	48.44	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR3 AB140 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp66°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameChris Sale HandL ERA2.14 HR/91.07
24	Dillon Dingler ▸	DET	KC	30.6%	86%	79.48	70.42	39.78	47.10	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.428 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %57.9% Launch Angle7.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up31.4% Blast %15.1% EV50— season HR6 AB113 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp64°F Wind7 mph SW vs pitcher NameKris Bubic HandL ERA3.32 HR/90.66
25	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	STL	29.0%	83%	69.71	63.91	36.12	50.27	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR0 AB135 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp69°F Wind7 mph W vs pitcher NameMichael McGreevy HandR ERA2.52 HR/91.14

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