ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	CWS	55.0%	86%	81.43	68.81	55.00	53.53	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR19 AB239 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp74°F Wind12 mph S vs pitcher NameDavis Martin HandR ERA2.41 HR/90.34
2	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	MIA	47.5%	83%	80.15	70.42	55.00	55.73	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR24 AB263 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp76°F Wind8 mph W vs pitcher NameTyler Phillips HandR ERA1.86 HR/90.37
3	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	TOR	43.2%	86%	73.14	70.21	55.73	55.38	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR16 AB237 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp76°F Wind5 mph NW vs pitcher NameDylan Cease HandR ERA2.91 HR/90.66
4	Mike Trout ▸	LAA	ARI	46.6%	86%	79.50	73.01	95.49	52.60	30.91	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.481 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %28.3% Hard Hit %45.7% Launch Angle22.6° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.4% Blast %16.4% EV50— season HR16 AB257 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAngel Stadium HR Factor0.97 Temp104°F Wind14 mph W vs pitcher NameMerrill Kelly HandR ERA5.46 HR/91.82
5	Nick Kurtz ▸	ATH	PIT	47.3%	86%	68.76	66.01	68.92	58.48	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo97.9 mph Barrel %14.3% Hard Hit %60.7% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.9 mph Squared Up18.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR18 AB256 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp80°F Wind13 mph SW vs pitcher NameMitch Keller HandR ERA5.14 HR/90.70
6	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	DET	45.0%	83%	80.04	70.42	74.58	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR24 AB265 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameFramber Valdez HandL ERA4.40 HR/91.04
7	James Wood ▸	WSH	KC	46.2%	83%	80.28	73.01	69.30	52.80	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.401 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %23.8% Hard Hit %59.5% Launch Angle3.3° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up19.7% Blast %15.4% EV50— season HR20 AB277 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind5 mph SW vs pitcher NameMichael Wacha HandR ERA3.58 HR/91.02
8	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ▸	TOR	BOS	41.9%	86%	78.75	69.72	26.17	50.00	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.4% Hard Hit %48.1% Launch Angle2.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.6 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %18.5% EV50— season HR3 AB246 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkRogers Centre HR Factor1.05 Temp76°F Wind5 mph NW vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA2.70 HR/90.51
9	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	SF	41.9%	83%	67.51	66.01	93.00	52.88	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR20 AB278 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp72°F Wind8 mph SW vs pitcher NameAdrian Houser HandR ERA5.54 HR/91.52
10	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	KC	38.6%	83%	75.85	70.91	58.76	52.80	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR14 AB263 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind5 mph SW vs pitcher NameMichael Wacha HandR ERA3.58 HR/91.02
11	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	SF	42.0%	83%	68.10	63.21	84.47	52.88	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR14 AB244 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp72°F Wind8 mph SW vs pitcher NameAdrian Houser HandR ERA5.54 HR/91.52
12	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	NYM	38.7%	86%	77.16	39.55	89.19	55.98	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR13 AB267 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp76°F Wind10 mph SW vs pitcher NameKodai Senga HandR ERA9.00 HR/92.25
13	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	DET	31.7%	83%	76.01	63.91	53.47	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR7 AB243 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameFramber Valdez HandL ERA4.40 HR/91.04
14	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	SD	36.6%	86%	86.93	52.64	67.51	56.37	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR18 AB273 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind13 mph W vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.46 HR/91.12
15	Dillon Dingler ▸	DET	HOU	38.5%	77%	79.48	70.42	63.99	56.23	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.428 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %57.9% Launch Angle7.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up31.4% Blast %15.1% EV50— season HR16 AB240 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameHunter Brown HandR ERA0.84 HR/91.15
16	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	DET	36.3%	83%	67.52	61.11	70.07	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR18 AB274 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameFramber Valdez HandL ERA4.40 HR/91.04
17	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	LAA	36.2%	86%	67.64	61.53	50.49	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR12 AB256 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp104°F Wind14 mph W vs pitcher NameReid Detmers HandL ERA4.00 HR/90.78
18	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	TB	35.7%	86%	78.54	66.01	47.39	55.27	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR11 AB265 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp75°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameDrew Rasmussen HandR ERA2.71 HR/90.99
19	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	STL	37.4%	86%	69.71	63.91	44.55	56.37	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR2 AB269 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp77°F Wind13 mph W vs pitcher NameAndre Pallante HandR ERA3.88 HR/91.16
20	Otto Lopez ▸	MIA	PHI	35.6%	86%	67.49	66.01	42.17	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %13.2% Hard Hit %54.7% Launch Angle8.1° bat tracking Bat Speed72.5 mph Squared Up29.8% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR5 AB286 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp76°F Wind8 mph W vs pitcher NameJesús Luzardo HandL ERA4.35 HR/90.92
21	Max Muncy ▸	LAD	TB	30.0%	86%	64.69	63.91	63.48	55.27	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.378 Exit Velo92.6 mph Barrel %17.6% Hard Hit %55.9% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed71.6 mph Squared Up21.8% Blast %7.9% EV50— season HR16 AB219 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp75°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameDrew Rasmussen HandR ERA2.71 HR/90.99
22	Andy Pages ▸	LAD	TB	33.7%	86%	60.89	66.01	54.12	55.27	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %8.9% Hard Hit %55.6% Launch Angle19.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.9 mph Squared Up20.8% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR15 AB279 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp75°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameDrew Rasmussen HandR ERA2.71 HR/90.99
23	Hunter Goodman ▸	COL	CHC	30.7%	86%	41.14	22.75	96.27	51.58	100.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.289 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %48.5% Launch Angle24.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.7 mph Squared Up14.7% Blast %7.3% EV50— season HR20 AB255 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCoors Field HR Factor1.50 Temp70°F Wind16 mph W vs pitcher NameEdward Cabrera HandR ERA4.86 HR/91.86
24	Alec Burleson ▸	STL	SD	31.2%	86%	77.15	43.75	59.78	56.37	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.422 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %12.1% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle12.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.2% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR13 AB272 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp77°F Wind13 mph W vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.46 HR/91.12
25	Ian Happ ▸	CHC	COL	28.5%	83%	56.81	45.92	85.72	51.58	47.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.330 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %18.4% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.1 mph Squared Up19.6% Blast %14.0% EV50— season HR16 AB260 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp70°F Wind16 mph W vs pitcher NameRyan Feltner HandR ERA5.20 HR/91.49

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