ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	ARI	55.0%	80%	81.43	68.81	100.00	59.31	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR39 AB548 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp90°F Wind2 mph SE vs pitcher NameCorbin Burnes HandR ERA5.87 HR/92.35
2	Luis García Jr. ▸	NYY	ARI	45.9%	80%	51.89	54.11	95.17	59.31	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.333 Exit Velo90.8 mph Barrel %8.5% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.5° bat tracking Bat Speed73.4 mph Squared Up27.4% Blast %14.7% EV50— season HR30 AB498 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp90°F Wind2 mph SE vs pitcher NameCorbin Burnes HandR ERA5.87 HR/92.35
3	James Wood ▸	WSH	STL	48.5%	83%	80.28	73.01	57.86	62.47	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.401 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %23.8% Hard Hit %59.5% Launch Angle3.3° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up19.7% Blast %15.4% EV50— season HR30 AB487 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp85°F Wind2 mph NE vs pitcher NameQuinn Mathews HandL ERA3.62 HR/90.72
4	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	NYM	48.1%	80%	80.15	70.42	64.42	48.91	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR45 AB558 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp67°F Wind9 mph S vs pitcher NameJonah Tong HandR ERA3.43 HR/90.86
5	Mike Trout ▸	LAA	MIN	46.0%	83%	79.50	73.01	84.41	52.49	30.91	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.481 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %28.3% Hard Hit %45.7% Launch Angle22.6° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.4% Blast %16.4% EV50— season HR21 AB493 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAngel Stadium HR Factor0.97 Temp72°F Wind2 mph SW vs pitcher NameDean Kremer HandR ERA5.35 HR/91.98
6	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	STL	41.1%	83%	75.85	70.91	54.14	62.47	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR30 AB555 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp85°F Wind2 mph NE vs pitcher NameQuinn Mathews HandL ERA3.62 HR/90.72
7	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	ATL	44.2%	86%	80.04	70.42	62.08	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR40 AB539 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp91°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameMartín Pérez HandL ERA3.07 HR/90.85
8	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	HOU	42.0%	86%	67.51	66.01	66.76	58.44	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR40 AB601 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp91°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameHunter Brown HandR ERA3.43 HR/91.02
9	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	WSH	39.4%	83%	86.93	52.64	83.03	62.47	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR28 AB584 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp85°F Wind2 mph NE vs pitcher NameJake Irvin HandR ERA5.51 HR/91.59
10	Chase DeLauter ▸	CLE	ATH	40.4%	86%	80.33	70.42	76.15	50.58	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.418 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %17.8% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.2° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.0% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR15 AB472 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkProgressive Field HR Factor0.93 Temp69°F Wind17 mph NE vs pitcher NameJack Perkins HandR ERA6.14 HR/91.64
11	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	HOU	38.5%	86%	68.10	63.21	56.10	58.44	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR26 AB568 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp91°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameHunter Brown HandR ERA3.43 HR/91.02
12	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	CHC	38.7%	86%	77.16	39.55	66.01	60.65	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR32 AB594 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp88°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameDavid Peterson HandL ERA5.11 HR/90.92
13	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	DET	36.7%	86%	72.67	63.21	64.12	48.40	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR32 AB428 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp66°F Wind11 mph NE vs pitcher NameTroy Melton HandR ERA2.52 HR/91.06
14	Garrett Mitchell ▸	MIL	BAL	30.0%	86%	77.14	61.11	53.18	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.387 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %19.0% Hard Hit %61.9% Launch Angle8.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up18.2% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR11 AB437 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp79°F Wind9 mph W vs pitcher NameBrandon Young HandR ERA3.65 HR/91.30
15	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	ATL	31.4%	86%	76.01	63.91	47.76	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR20 AB485 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp91°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameMartín Pérez HandL ERA3.07 HR/90.85
16	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	NYY	33.8%	86%	67.64	61.53	61.89	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR22 AB556 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp90°F Wind2 mph SE vs pitcher NameWill Warren HandR ERA3.89 HR/91.28
17	Josh Bell ▸	MIN	LAA	35.3%	83%	51.60	63.91	79.46	52.49	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.351 Exit Velo89.6 mph Barrel %11.4% Hard Hit %47.7% Launch Angle17.9° bat tracking Bat Speed71.2 mph Squared Up22.9% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR20 AB547 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTarget Field HR Factor1.02 Temp72°F Wind2 mph SW vs pitcher NameRyan Johnson HandR ERA4.88 HR/91.79
18	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	SF	34.5%	80%	78.54	66.01	71.68	51.59	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR16 AB555 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp70°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameMatt Wilkinson HandL ERA4.58 HR/91.83
19	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	HOU	39.0%	86%	71.51	52.64	55.28	58.44	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR24 AB524 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp91°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameHunter Brown HandR ERA3.43 HR/91.02
20	Otto Lopez ▸	MIA	SD	36.5%	83%	67.49	66.01	54.43	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %13.2% Hard Hit %54.7% Launch Angle8.1° bat tracking Bat Speed72.5 mph Squared Up29.8% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR11 AB603 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameWalker Buehler HandR ERA4.58 HR/91.26
21	Alec Burleson ▸	STL	WSH	34.8%	83%	77.15	43.75	79.41	62.47	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.422 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %12.1% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle12.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.2% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR23 AB582 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp85°F Wind2 mph NE vs pitcher NameJake Irvin HandR ERA5.51 HR/91.59
22	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	ATL	30.3%	86%	67.52	61.11	48.55	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR25 AB545 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp91°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameMartín Pérez HandL ERA3.07 HR/90.85
23	Yandy Díaz ▸	TB	BOS	37.6%	86%	62.87	66.71	57.47	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.365 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %7.3% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle5.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up30.7% Blast %20.8% EV50— season HR22 AB590 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTropicana Field HR Factor0.95 Temp86°F Wind2 mph S vs pitcher NamePatrick Sandoval HandL ERA4.99 HR/90.94
24	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	MIA	36.8%	83%	69.71	63.91	54.27	52.89	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR24 AB603 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameSandy Alcantara HandR ERA3.84 HR/91.00
25	Ian Happ ▸	CHC	CIN	30.8%	86%	56.81	45.92	74.54	60.65	47.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.330 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %18.4% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.1 mph Squared Up19.6% Blast %14.0% EV50— season HR24 AB519 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp88°F Wind3 mph S vs pitcher NameRhett Lowder HandR ERA5.79 HR/91.30

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