ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	STL	55.0%	86%	81.43	68.81	72.74	57.95	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR31 AB399 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp78°F Wind9 mph NW vs pitcher NameMichael McGreevy HandR ERA3.57 HR/91.16
2	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	PHI	43.2%	86%	75.85	70.91	98.33	61.67	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR28 AB408 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp83°F Wind8 mph NW vs pitcher NameAaron Nola HandR ERA5.61 HR/92.05
3	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	TOR	46.4%	86%	80.04	70.42	100.00	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR35 AB403 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp92°F Wind13 mph S vs pitcher NameShane Bieber HandR ERA5.74 HR/92.01
4	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ▸	TOR	HOU	45.7%	83%	78.75	69.72	59.02	50.00	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.4% Hard Hit %48.1% Launch Angle2.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.6 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %18.5% EV50— season HR6 AB394 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkRogers Centre HR Factor1.05 Temp92°F Wind13 mph S vs pitcher NameCristian Javier HandR ERA7.17 HR/91.27
5	Trent Grisham ▸	NYY	STL	44.9%	86%	67.25	36.75	53.72	57.95	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %12.8% Hard Hit %64.1% Launch Angle15.1° bat tracking Bat Speed69.5 mph Squared Up35.1% Blast %22.1% EV50— season HR11 AB313 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp78°F Wind9 mph NW vs pitcher NameMichael McGreevy HandR ERA3.57 HR/91.16
6	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	TOR	29.9%	86%	76.01	63.91	82.58	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR13 AB367 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp92°F Wind13 mph S vs pitcher NameShane Bieber HandR ERA5.74 HR/92.01
7	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	TOR	34.5%	86%	67.52	61.11	91.60	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR22 AB404 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp92°F Wind13 mph S vs pitcher NameShane Bieber HandR ERA5.74 HR/92.01
8	Garrett Mitchell ▸	MIL	PIT	31.3%	86%	77.14	61.11	47.28	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.387 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %19.0% Hard Hit %61.9% Launch Angle8.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up18.2% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR8 AB318 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp79°F Wind6 mph E vs pitcher NameBubba Chandler HandR ERA4.56 HR/90.86
9	Mickey Moniak ▸	COL	TB	34.3%	86%	39.38	29.75	80.80	61.20	100.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.323 Exit Velo87.3 mph Barrel %13.8% Hard Hit %31.0% Launch Angle32.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up22.4% Blast %6.6% EV50— season HR17 AB256 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCoors Field HR Factor1.50 Temp87°F Wind19 mph NE vs pitcher NameIan Seymour HandL ERA4.37 HR/91.38
10	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	NYY	39.0%	86%	86.93	52.64	47.42	57.95	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR22 AB427 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp78°F Wind9 mph NW vs pitcher NameCam Schlittler HandR ERA2.04 HR/90.79
11	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	CHC	34.7%	86%	78.54	66.01	44.57	57.65	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR15 AB413 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp78°F Wind7 mph E vs pitcher NameMatthew Boyd HandL ERA3.41 HR/90.82
12	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	SD	39.2%	86%	67.64	61.53	50.32	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR16 AB405 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp110°F Wind14 mph W vs pitcher NameMichael King HandR ERA3.38 HR/90.93
13	Yandy Díaz ▸	TB	COL	38.7%	86%	62.87	66.71	71.74	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.365 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %7.3% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle5.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up30.7% Blast %20.8% EV50— season HR15 AB415 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTropicana Field HR Factor0.95 Temp87°F Wind19 mph NE vs pitcher NameMichael Lorenzen HandR ERA6.54 HR/91.38
14	Austin Wells ▸	NYY	STL	25.8%	86%	56.02	27.65	50.99	57.95	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.325 Exit Velo93.5 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %54.5% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed73.5 mph Squared Up26.4% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR7 AB217 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp78°F Wind9 mph NW vs pitcher NameMichael McGreevy HandR ERA3.57 HR/91.16
15	Hunter Goodman ▸	COL	TB	33.1%	86%	41.14	22.75	82.91	61.20	100.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.289 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %48.5% Launch Angle24.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.7 mph Squared Up14.7% Blast %7.3% EV50— season HR33 AB383 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCoors Field HR Factor1.50 Temp87°F Wind19 mph NE vs pitcher NameIan Seymour HandL ERA4.37 HR/91.38
16	William Contreras ▸	MIL	PIT	32.7%	86%	54.94	63.21	48.65	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.357 Exit Velo91.8 mph Barrel %4.3% Hard Hit %45.7% Launch Angle18.4° bat tracking Bat Speed73.3 mph Squared Up28.6% Blast %12.2% EV50— season HR10 AB396 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp79°F Wind6 mph E vs pitcher NameBubba Chandler HandR ERA4.56 HR/90.86
17	Richie Palacios ▸	TB	COL	28.3%	86%	71.61	61.53	60.83	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.419 Exit Velo91.5 mph Barrel %12.5% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle17.0° bat tracking Bat Speed69.3 mph Squared Up29.4% Blast %14.7% EV50— season HR4 AB227 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTropicana Field HR Factor0.95 Temp87°F Wind19 mph NE vs pitcher NameMichael Lorenzen HandR ERA6.54 HR/91.38
18	Carson Kelly ▸	CHC	LAD	32.5%	73%	79.82	41.65	54.03	57.65	47.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.427 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.5% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed70.6 mph Squared Up38.3% Blast %23.5% EV50— season HR6 AB258 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp78°F Wind7 mph E vs pitcher NameTBD HandR ERA4.20 HR/91.15
19	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	ARI	36.0%	86%	69.71	63.91	44.56	52.80	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR8 AB431 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp110°F Wind14 mph W vs pitcher NameBrandon Pfaadt HandR ERA4.00 HR/91.00
20	Andy Pages ▸	LAD	CHC	34.1%	86%	60.89	66.01	47.84	57.65	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %8.9% Hard Hit %55.6% Launch Angle19.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.9 mph Squared Up20.8% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR18 AB429 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp78°F Wind7 mph E vs pitcher NameMatthew Boyd HandL ERA3.41 HR/90.82
21	Bryce Harper ▸	PHI	WSH	32.3%	86%	68.02	41.65	54.52	61.67	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.424 Exit Velo88.9 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up24.8% Blast %10.6% EV50— season HR23 AB396 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp83°F Wind8 mph NW vs pitcher NameAndrew Alvarez HandL ERA4.06 HR/90.31
22	Ian Happ ▸	CHC	LAD	23.7%	73%	56.81	45.92	64.42	57.65	47.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.330 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %18.4% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.1 mph Squared Up19.6% Blast %14.0% EV50— season HR18 AB399 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp78°F Wind7 mph E vs pitcher NameTBD HandR ERA4.20 HR/91.15
23	Alec Burleson ▸	STL	NYY	30.3%	86%	77.15	43.75	39.03	57.95	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.422 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %12.1% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle12.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.2% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR15 AB426 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp78°F Wind9 mph NW vs pitcher NameCam Schlittler HandR ERA2.04 HR/90.79
24	Shohei Ohtani ▸	LAD	CHC	32.0%	86%	81.72	52.64	33.80	57.65	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.414 Exit Velo94.0 mph Barrel %23.9% Hard Hit %52.2% Launch Angle14.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %13.5% EV50— season HR4 AB305 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp78°F Wind7 mph E vs pitcher NameMatthew Boyd HandL ERA3.41 HR/90.82
25	Bryan Reynolds ▸	PIT	MIL	28.7%	86%	65.78	47.74	75.93	57.82	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.382 Exit Velo93.1 mph Barrel %10.9% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.2° bat tracking Bat Speed73.0 mph Squared Up25.0% Blast %12.1% EV50— season HR15 AB413 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPNC Park HR Factor0.93 Temp79°F Wind6 mph E vs pitcher NameBrandon Sproat HandR ERA5.05 HR/91.65

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