ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	CWS	55.0%	86%	81.43	68.81	82.23	55.87	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR20 AB243 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp77°F Wind10 mph S vs pitcher NameAnthony Kay HandL ERA4.34 HR/91.36
2	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	TOR	45.7%	86%	73.14	70.21	97.74	57.67	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR16 AB241 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp79°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameMax Scherzer HandR ERA10.23 HR/93.68
3	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	SF	43.8%	86%	67.51	66.01	93.00	59.40	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR20 AB278 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp81°F Wind7 mph SW vs pitcher NameAdrian Houser HandR ERA5.54 HR/91.52
4	James Wood ▸	WSH	KC	47.1%	80%	80.28	73.01	83.25	52.80	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.401 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %23.8% Hard Hit %59.5% Launch Angle3.3° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up19.7% Blast %15.4% EV50— season HR20 AB281 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind5 mph SW vs pitcher NameLuinder Avila HandR ERA6.19 HR/91.13
5	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ▸	TOR	BOS	44.6%	83%	78.75	69.72	41.22	50.00	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.4% Hard Hit %48.1% Launch Angle2.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.6 mph Squared Up27.8% Blast %18.5% EV50— season HR3 AB250 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkRogers Centre HR Factor1.05 Temp79°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameJake Bennett HandL ERA5.28 HR/90.59
6	Mike Trout ▸	LAA	ARI	44.4%	86%	79.50	73.01	57.09	52.81	30.91	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.481 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %28.3% Hard Hit %45.7% Launch Angle22.6° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.4% Blast %16.4% EV50— season HR17 AB262 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAngel Stadium HR Factor0.97 Temp100°F Wind10 mph W vs pitcher NameEduardo Rodriguez HandL ERA2.55 HR/90.89
7	Nick Kurtz ▸	ATH	PIT	36.2%	86%	68.76	66.01	61.38	56.44	45.45	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo97.9 mph Barrel %14.3% Hard Hit %60.7% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.9 mph Squared Up18.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR18 AB260 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp77°F Wind13 mph SW vs pitcher NameBraxton Ashcraft HandR ERA3.30 HR/90.85
8	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	DET	43.8%	83%	80.04	70.42	55.00	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR24 AB270 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp83°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameCasey Mize HandR ERA2.27 HR/90.38
9	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	KC	39.4%	80%	75.85	70.91	72.44	52.80	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR14 AB267 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp72°F Wind5 mph SW vs pitcher NameLuinder Avila HandR ERA6.19 HR/91.13
10	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	SF	42.1%	86%	71.51	52.64	92.35	59.40	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR13 AB188 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp81°F Wind7 mph SW vs pitcher NameAdrian Houser HandR ERA5.54 HR/91.52
11	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	SD	36.8%	80%	86.93	52.64	51.09	60.38	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR18 AB277 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp86°F Wind21 mph S vs pitcher NameBradgley Rodriguez HandR ERA2.16 HR/90.27
12	Dillon Dingler ▸	DET	HOU	39.7%	83%	79.48	70.42	60.26	60.40	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.428 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %57.9% Launch Angle7.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up31.4% Blast %15.1% EV50— season HR16 AB243 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp83°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NamePeter Lambert HandR ERA3.47 HR/90.79
13	Garrett Mitchell ▸	MIL	CLE	31.6%	86%	77.14	61.11	52.31	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.387 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %19.0% Hard Hit %61.9% Launch Angle8.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up18.2% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR5 AB190 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp60°F Wind16 mph SE vs pitcher NameGavin Williams HandR ERA3.32 HR/91.35
14	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	NYM	37.5%	86%	77.16	39.55	58.08	58.43	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR14 AB271 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp80°F Wind10 mph SW vs pitcher NameNolan McLean HandR ERA3.96 HR/90.93
15	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	DET	32.0%	83%	76.01	63.91	31.63	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR7 AB247 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp83°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameCasey Mize HandR ERA2.27 HR/90.38
16	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	STL	39.5%	86%	69.71	63.91	51.73	60.38	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR2 AB273 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp86°F Wind21 mph S vs pitcher NameKyle Leahy HandR ERA4.64 HR/91.27
17	Otto Lopez ▸	MIA	PHI	37.7%	86%	67.49	66.01	70.14	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %13.2% Hard Hit %54.7% Launch Angle8.1° bat tracking Bat Speed72.5 mph Squared Up29.8% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR5 AB290 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp81°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameAndrew Painter HandR ERA6.43 HR/91.71
18	Ildemaro Vargas ▸	ARI	LAA	31.4%	80%	61.77	66.01	34.71	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.409 Exit Velo86.4 mph Barrel %8.6% Hard Hit %37.1% Launch Angle11.1° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up38.6% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR7 AB228 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp100°F Wind10 mph W vs pitcher NameSam Aldegheri HandL ERA2.12 HR/90.53
19	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	LAA	35.4%	80%	67.64	61.53	39.23	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR12 AB260 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp100°F Wind10 mph W vs pitcher NameSam Aldegheri HandL ERA2.12 HR/90.53
20	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	DET	34.9%	83%	67.52	61.11	51.09	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR18 AB277 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp83°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameCasey Mize HandR ERA2.27 HR/90.38
21	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	TB	33.5%	83%	78.54	66.01	43.01	50.21	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR11 AB268 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp69°F Wind7 mph S vs pitcher NameShane McClanahan HandL ERA3.23 HR/90.42
22	Yandy Díaz ▸	TB	LAD	36.4%	83%	62.87	66.71	42.10	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.365 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %7.3% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle5.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up30.7% Blast %20.8% EV50— season HR12 AB259 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTropicana Field HR Factor0.95 Temp69°F Wind7 mph S vs pitcher NameShohei Ohtani HandR ERA1.06 HR/90.40
23	Bryce Harper ▸	PHI	MIA	32.6%	86%	68.02	41.65	68.87	59.64	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.424 Exit Velo88.9 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up24.8% Blast %10.6% EV50— season HR15 AB252 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp81°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameSandy Alcantara HandR ERA4.25 HR/91.11
24	Alec Burleson ▸	STL	SD	31.5%	80%	77.15	43.75	43.32	60.38	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.422 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %12.1% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle12.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.2% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR13 AB277 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp86°F Wind21 mph S vs pitcher NameBradgley Rodriguez HandR ERA2.16 HR/90.27
25	Colt Keith ▸	DET	HOU	27.3%	83%	66.09	66.01	35.26	60.40	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.355 Exit Velo93.9 mph Barrel %9.8% Hard Hit %56.1% Launch Angle13.7° bat tracking Bat Speed72.7 mph Squared Up38.1% Blast %21.4% EV50— season HR4 AB195 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp83°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NamePeter Lambert HandR ERA3.47 HR/90.79

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