ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	COL	46.2%	83%	80.15	70.42	68.32	48.28	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR13 AB145 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp66°F Wind4 mph NW vs pitcher NameKyle Freeland HandL ERA5.04 HR/91.44
2	James Wood ▸	WSH	MIA	47.0%	86%	80.28	73.01	55.52	57.98	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.401 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %23.8% Hard Hit %59.5% Launch Angle3.3° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up19.7% Blast %15.4% EV50— season HR10 AB149 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp90°F Wind15 mph SE vs pitcher NameJanson Junk HandR ERA2.82 HR/90.70
3	Elly De La Cruz ▸	CIN	HOU	42.8%	80%	74.52	59.01	52.41	50.71	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.388 Exit Velo94.7 mph Barrel %15.2% Hard Hit %52.2% Launch Angle13.1° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up24.6% Blast %16.7% EV50— season HR10 AB155 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp69°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameSpencer Arrighetti HandR ERA1.96 HR/90.39
4	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	CIN	44.4%	83%	80.04	70.42	65.00	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR13 AB145 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp69°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameChase Burns HandR ERA2.20 HR/91.10
5	CJ Abrams ▸	WSH	MIA	39.8%	86%	75.85	70.91	54.12	57.98	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.432 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %14.0% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle16.6° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up29.1% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR9 AB134 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkNationals Park HR Factor0.95 Temp90°F Wind15 mph SE vs pitcher NameJanson Junk HandR ERA2.82 HR/90.70
6	Aaron Judge ▸	NYY	MIL	40.8%	86%	78.94	39.55	35.00	48.80	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.427 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %28.6% Hard Hit %52.4% Launch Angle8.2° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up19.2% Blast %13.1% EV50— season HR15 AB141 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp65°F Wind16 mph NW vs pitcher NameKyle Harrison HandL ERA2.12 HR/90.61
7	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	SEA	42.1%	83%	72.67	63.21	81.25	51.14	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR15 AB135 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp70°F Wind13 mph W vs pitcher NameLuis Castillo HandR ERA6.29 HR/91.05
8	Nick Kurtz ▸	ATH	BAL	43.4%	83%	68.76	66.01	55.56	49.04	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo97.9 mph Barrel %14.3% Hard Hit %60.7% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.9 mph Squared Up18.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR5 AB136 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp67°F Wind4 mph W vs pitcher NameShane Baz HandR ERA4.99 HR/90.91
9	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	TB	41.6%	86%	73.14	70.21	46.60	39.27	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR8 AB135 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp54°F Wind2 mph S vs pitcher NameNick Martinez HandR ERA1.71 HR/90.64
10	Chase DeLauter ▸	CLE	MIN	39.6%	83%	80.33	70.42	50.37	48.52	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.418 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %17.8% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.2° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.0% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR6 AB124 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkProgressive Field HR Factor0.93 Temp66°F Wind17 mph SW vs pitcher NameJoe Ryan HandR ERA3.72 HR/90.70
11	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	CIN	34.2%	83%	76.01	63.91	40.99	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR4 AB131 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp69°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameChase Burns HandR ERA2.20 HR/91.10
12	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	LAD	35.6%	83%	67.51	66.01	35.00	49.95	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR13 AB150 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp68°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameBlake Snell HandL ERA2.35 HR/90.44
13	Dillon Dingler ▸	DET	KC	33.7%	86%	79.48	70.42	55.90	57.48	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.428 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %57.9% Launch Angle7.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up31.4% Blast %15.1% EV50— season HR6 AB117 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp78°F Wind10 mph SW vs pitcher NameMichael Wacha HandR ERA3.05 HR/91.02
14	Ildemaro Vargas ▸	ARI	NYM	33.5%	86%	61.77	66.01	44.10	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.409 Exit Velo86.4 mph Barrel %8.6% Hard Hit %37.1% Launch Angle11.1° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up38.6% Blast %17.5% EV50— season HR6 AB119 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp93°F Wind4 mph NW vs pitcher NameClay Holmes HandR ERA1.69 HR/90.63
15	Otto Lopez ▸	MIA	WSH	38.0%	86%	67.49	66.01	74.52	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %13.2% Hard Hit %54.7% Launch Angle8.1° bat tracking Bat Speed72.5 mph Squared Up29.8% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR4 AB151 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp90°F Wind15 mph SE vs pitcher NameZack Littell HandR ERA7.24 HR/93.62
16	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	SD	34.5%	83%	86.93	52.64	64.58	50.48	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR10 AB139 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp69°F Wind8 mph SW vs pitcher NameRandy Vásquez HandR ERA3.20 HR/90.92
17	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	LAD	31.4%	83%	68.10	63.21	35.00	49.95	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR7 AB119 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp68°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameBlake Snell HandL ERA2.35 HR/90.44
18	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	CIN	34.1%	83%	67.52	61.11	60.30	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR9 AB142 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp69°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameChase Burns HandR ERA2.20 HR/91.10
19	Corbin Carroll ▸	ARI	NYM	36.7%	86%	67.64	61.53	37.44	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.403 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %12.2% Hard Hit %43.9% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up22.2% Blast %10.2% EV50— season HR5 AB124 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkChase Field HR Factor1.02 Temp93°F Wind4 mph NW vs pitcher NameClay Holmes HandR ERA1.69 HR/90.63
20	Ian Happ ▸	CHC	TEX	33.7%	86%	56.81	45.92	91.82	61.56	47.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.330 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %18.4% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.1 mph Squared Up19.6% Blast %14.0% EV50— season HR9 AB140 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp84°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameJack Leiter HandR ERA5.45 HR/91.66
21	Yandy Díaz ▸	TB	BOS	31.6%	83%	62.87	66.71	35.00	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.365 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %7.3% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle5.7° bat tracking Bat Speed74.5 mph Squared Up30.7% Blast %20.8% EV50— season HR5 AB136 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTropicana Field HR Factor0.95 Temp54°F Wind2 mph S vs pitcher NamePayton Tolle HandL ERA2.04 HR/90.51
22	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	STL	33.5%	83%	69.71	63.91	41.46	50.48	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR0 AB137 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp69°F Wind8 mph SW vs pitcher NameDustin May HandR ERA5.15 HR/90.74
23	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	LAD	32.7%	83%	71.51	52.64	35.00	49.95	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR9 AB158 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp68°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameBlake Snell HandL ERA2.35 HR/90.44
24	Dansby Swanson ▸	CHC	TEX	23.3%	86%	53.46	40.74	83.68	61.56	47.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.338 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %13.5% Hard Hit %56.8% Launch Angle13.4° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up25.0% Blast %9.6% EV50— season HR6 AB128 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp84°F Wind3 mph E vs pitcher NameJack Leiter HandR ERA5.45 HR/91.66
25	Hunter Goodman ▸	COL	PHI	30.3%	86%	41.14	22.75	88.68	48.28	100.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.289 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %48.5% Launch Angle24.3° bat tracking Bat Speed75.7 mph Squared Up14.7% Blast %7.3% EV50— season HR10 AB134 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCoors Field HR Factor1.50 Temp66°F Wind4 mph NW vs pitcher NameAaron Nola HandR ERA5.06 HR/91.45

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