ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Ben Rice ▸	NYY	BOS	55.0%	83%	81.43	68.81	59.95	52.40	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.467 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %23.3% Hard Hit %70.0% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed71.9 mph Squared Up26.9% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR41 AB573 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA2.72 HR/90.85
2	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	ATL	49.5%	86%	80.15	70.42	76.44	59.29	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR45 AB581 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp81°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameTyler Mahle HandR ERA3.99 HR/91.21
3	Luis García Jr. ▸	NYY	BOS	44.2%	83%	51.89	54.11	54.12	52.40	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.333 Exit Velo90.8 mph Barrel %8.5% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.5° bat tracking Bat Speed73.4 mph Squared Up27.4% Blast %14.7% EV50— season HR30 AB516 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA2.72 HR/90.85
4	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	NYY	44.1%	83%	73.14	70.21	51.60	52.40	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR27 AB448 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameMax Fried HandL ERA2.80 HR/90.32
5	Ronald Acuña Jr. ▸	ATL	PHI	47.1%	86%	69.74	70.21	50.23	59.29	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.405 Exit Velo88.0 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %43.6% Launch Angle15.0° bat tracking Bat Speed75.5 mph Squared Up21.4% Blast %13.7% EV50— season HR20 AB408 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp81°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameCristopher Sánchez HandL ERA2.91 HR/90.83
6	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	CWS	44.5%	86%	80.04	70.42	67.15	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR42 AB567 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp91°F Wind10 mph SE vs pitcher NameSean Burke HandR ERA3.34 HR/90.99
7	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	PHI	39.9%	86%	67.51	66.01	57.73	59.29	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR41 AB625 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp81°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameCristopher Sánchez HandL ERA2.91 HR/90.83
8	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	HOU	39.7%	86%	72.67	63.21	64.53	58.07	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR35 AB454 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp91°F Wind10 mph SE vs pitcher NameHunter Brown HandR ERA3.19 HR/90.92
9	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	PHI	33.0%	86%	68.10	63.21	45.42	59.29	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR26 AB591 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp81°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameCristopher Sánchez HandL ERA2.91 HR/90.83
10	Michael Conforto ▸	CHC	SD	33.4%	86%	63.15	61.11	48.56	57.14	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.392 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %8.3% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle12.7° bat tracking Bat Speed72.9 mph Squared Up20.0% Blast %10.0% EV50— season HR15 AB271 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp78°F Wind6 mph SW vs pitcher NameNick Pivetta HandR ERA2.86 HR/90.52
11	Trent Grisham ▸	NYY	BOS	32.4%	83%	67.25	36.75	45.58	52.40	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %12.8% Hard Hit %64.1% Launch Angle15.1° bat tracking Bat Speed69.5 mph Squared Up35.1% Blast %22.1% EV50— season HR18 AB418 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA2.72 HR/90.85
12	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	CWS	30.0%	86%	76.01	63.91	51.76	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR21 AB510 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp91°F Wind10 mph SE vs pitcher NameSean Burke HandR ERA3.34 HR/90.99
13	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	CHC	30.9%	86%	69.71	63.91	66.63	57.14	21.82	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR25 AB626 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp78°F Wind6 mph SW vs pitcher NameKevin Gausman HandR ERA4.51 HR/91.32
14	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	PHI	37.1%	86%	71.51	52.64	46.98	59.29	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR25 AB549 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp81°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameCristopher Sánchez HandL ERA2.91 HR/90.83
15	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	CWS	30.9%	86%	67.52	61.11	57.21	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR29 AB571 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp91°F Wind10 mph SE vs pitcher NameSean Burke HandR ERA3.34 HR/90.99
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr. ▸	NYY	BOS	30.0%	83%	20.29	47.11	44.79	52.40	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.198 Exit Velo88.1 mph Barrel %4.8% Hard Hit %33.3% Launch Angle16.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.7 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %7.8% EV50— season HR19 AB471 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA2.72 HR/90.85
17	Cody Bellinger ▸	NYY	BOS	35.6%	83%	35.43	40.74	40.88	52.40	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.323 Exit Velo87.0 mph Barrel %7.8% Hard Hit %39.2% Launch Angle22.2° bat tracking Bat Speed69.8 mph Squared Up30.1% Blast %6.8% EV50— season HR17 AB496 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA2.72 HR/90.85
18	Carson Kelly ▸	CHC	SD	27.6%	86%	79.82	41.65	35.26	57.14	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.427 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.5% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed70.6 mph Squared Up38.3% Blast %23.5% EV50— season HR10 AB380 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp78°F Wind6 mph SW vs pitcher NameNick Pivetta HandR ERA2.86 HR/90.52
19	Bryce Harper ▸	PHI	ATL	32.3%	86%	68.02	41.65	66.26	59.29	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.424 Exit Velo88.9 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed73.8 mph Squared Up24.8% Blast %10.6% EV50— season HR29 AB577 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp81°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameTyler Mahle HandR ERA3.99 HR/91.21
20	Austin Wells ▸	NYY	BOS	25.4%	83%	56.02	27.65	44.35	52.40	92.73	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.325 Exit Velo93.5 mph Barrel %9.1% Hard Hit %54.5% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed73.5 mph Squared Up26.4% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR14 AB334 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkYankee Stadium HR Factor1.31 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameSonny Gray HandR ERA2.72 HR/90.85
21	Ian Happ ▸	CHC	SD	25.6%	86%	56.81	45.92	43.04	57.14	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.330 Exit Velo90.9 mph Barrel %18.4% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle9.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.1 mph Squared Up19.6% Blast %14.0% EV50— season HR24 AB546 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp78°F Wind6 mph SW vs pitcher NameNick Pivetta HandR ERA2.86 HR/90.52
22	Ceddanne Rafaela ▸	BOS	NYY	25.8%	83%	37.75	54.11	34.10	52.40	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.326 Exit Velo88.7 mph Barrel %7.9% Hard Hit %36.8% Launch Angle10.9° bat tracking Bat Speed69.6 mph Squared Up30.8% Blast %7.7% EV50— season HR16 AB541 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp72°F Wind3 mph SW vs pitcher NameMax Fried HandL ERA2.80 HR/90.32
23	Matt Shaw ▸	CHC	SD	22.9%	86%	30.86	52.01	34.50	57.14	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.319 Exit Velo87.6 mph Barrel %8.1% Hard Hit %32.4% Launch Angle12.1° bat tracking Bat Speed68.0 mph Squared Up28.6% Blast %6.6% EV50— season HR5 AB173 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp78°F Wind6 mph SW vs pitcher NameNick Pivetta HandR ERA2.86 HR/90.52
24	Dansby Swanson ▸	CHC	SD	22.8%	86%	53.46	40.74	43.84	57.14	47.27	Probable
statcast xwOBA0.338 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %13.5% Hard Hit %56.8% Launch Angle13.4° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up25.0% Blast %9.6% EV50— season HR19 AB428 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkWrigley Field HR Factor1.06 Temp78°F Wind6 mph SW vs pitcher NameNick Pivetta HandR ERA2.86 HR/90.52
25	Alec Bohm ▸	PHI	ATL	25.1%	86%	30.00	47.81	54.07	59.29	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.276 Exit Velo88.5 mph Barrel %0.0% Hard Hit %39.6% Launch Angle6.4° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up31.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR15 AB567 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp81°F Wind6 mph SE vs pitcher NameTyler Mahle HandR ERA3.99 HR/91.21

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