ballKnower9001 — HR Predictions

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ADVANCED MLB HOME RUN PREDICTION SYSTEM

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#	Player	Team	Opp	Prob %	Conf	Statcast	Form	Matchup	Weather	Park	Lineup
1	Yordan Alvarez ▸	HOU	SEA	44.0%	86%	80.04	70.42	90.25	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.529 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %19.2% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle24.6° bat tracking Bat Speed74.9 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %17.8% EV50— season HR13 AB162 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp87°F Wind6 mph S vs pitcher NameLuis Castillo HandR ERA6.57 HR/91.41
2	Willson Contreras ▸	BOS	PHI	40.1%	86%	73.14	70.21	60.75	42.69	49.09	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.415 Exit Velo91.1 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %42.1% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed75.8 mph Squared Up18.5% Blast %13.0% EV50— season HR8 AB139 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkFenway Park HR Factor1.07 Temp59°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameJesús Luzardo HandL ERA5.77 HR/91.03
3	Kyle Schwarber ▸	PHI	BOS	42.6%	86%	80.15	70.42	36.58	42.69	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.413 Exit Velo93.6 mph Barrel %27.3% Hard Hit %51.5% Launch Angle27.7° bat tracking Bat Speed75.9 mph Squared Up18.6% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR17 AB159 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCitizens Bank Park HR Factor1.05 Temp59°F Wind7 mph SE vs pitcher NameRanger Suarez HandL ERA2.77 HR/90.69
4	Nick Kurtz ▸	ATH	STL	43.6%	83%	68.76	66.01	46.30	51.57	45.45	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo97.9 mph Barrel %14.3% Hard Hit %60.7% Launch Angle15.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.9 mph Squared Up18.0% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR6 AB150 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkSutter Health Park HR Factor1.05 Temp70°F Wind6 mph NW vs pitcher NameMichael McGreevy HandR ERA2.18 HR/90.99
5	Luke Raley ▸	SEA	HOU	36.6%	86%	77.62	73.01	92.57	50.00	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.409 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %53.1% Launch Angle12.1° bat tracking Bat Speed75.2 mph Squared Up17.6% Blast %12.7% EV50— season HR9 AB107 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkT-Mobile Park HR Factor0.89 Temp87°F Wind6 mph S vs pitcher NameMike Burrows HandR ERA5.04 HR/91.61
6	Matt Olson ▸	ATL	CHC	39.3%	80%	67.51	66.01	55.00	52.18	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo92.5 mph Barrel %18.8% Hard Hit %45.8% Launch Angle13.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.7 mph Squared Up21.9% Blast %14.6% EV50— season HR14 AB166 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp70°F Wind13 mph NW vs pitcher NameBen Brown HandR ERA1.82 HR/90.30
7	Cam Smith ▸	HOU	SEA	30.7%	86%	76.01	63.91	65.25	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.393 Exit Velo90.7 mph Barrel %17.0% Hard Hit %53.2% Launch Angle9.1° bat tracking Bat Speed77.9 mph Squared Up20.3% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR4 AB144 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp87°F Wind6 mph S vs pitcher NameLuis Castillo HandR ERA6.57 HR/91.41
8	Edouard Julien ▸	COL	PIT	28.7%	83%	60.31	47.74	36.17	35.59	100.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.356 Exit Velo91.7 mph Barrel %11.5% Hard Hit %46.2% Launch Angle1.9° bat tracking Bat Speed71.4 mph Squared Up35.3% Blast %17.6% EV50— season HR2 AB107 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkCoors Field HR Factor1.50 Temp48°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameMason Montgomery HandL ERA2.70 HR/90.54
9	Garrett Mitchell ▸	MIL	SD	31.4%	80%	77.14	61.11	49.00	50.00	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.387 Exit Velo96.8 mph Barrel %19.0% Hard Hit %61.9% Launch Angle8.9° bat tracking Bat Speed76.2 mph Squared Up18.2% Blast %14.3% EV50— season HR1 AB112 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkAmerican Family Field HR Factor1.02 Temp64°F Wind7 mph E vs pitcher NameGriffin Canning HandR ERA6.75 HR/90.96
10	Jordan Walker ▸	STL	ATH	37.4%	83%	86.93	52.64	80.00	51.57	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.476 Exit Velo95.8 mph Barrel %24.4% Hard Hit %62.2% Launch Angle14.1° bat tracking Bat Speed78.1 mph Squared Up23.9% Blast %19.5% EV50— season HR11 AB155 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp70°F Wind6 mph NW vs pitcher NameJacob Lopez HandL ERA6.11 HR/92.04
11	Christian Walker ▸	HOU	SEA	34.2%	86%	67.52	61.11	86.50	50.00	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo90.5 mph Barrel %15.1% Hard Hit %49.1% Launch Angle14.9° bat tracking Bat Speed74.3 mph Squared Up27.7% Blast %16.1% EV50— season HR10 AB160 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkDaikin Park HR Factor1.00 Temp87°F Wind6 mph S vs pitcher NameLuis Castillo HandR ERA6.57 HR/91.41
12	Oneil Cruz ▸	PIT	COL	40.4%	83%	85.09	73.01	70.28	35.59	23.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.409 Exit Velo97.1 mph Barrel %20.5% Hard Hit %61.4% Launch Angle7.9° bat tracking Bat Speed78.5 mph Squared Up25.8% Blast %19.2% EV50— season HR10 AB173 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPNC Park HR Factor0.93 Temp48°F Wind10 mph NW vs pitcher NameChase Dollander HandR ERA3.89 HR/91.23
13	Michael Harris II ▸	ATL	CHC	35.6%	80%	68.10	63.21	41.28	52.18	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.379 Exit Velo92.1 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %46.7% Launch Angle5.4° bat tracking Bat Speed74.8 mph Squared Up24.3% Blast %12.6% EV50— season HR7 AB135 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp70°F Wind13 mph NW vs pitcher NameBen Brown HandR ERA1.82 HR/90.30
14	Munetaka Murakami ▸	CWS	KC	36.2%	86%	72.67	63.21	40.83	46.80	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.375 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %21.2% Hard Hit %57.6% Launch Angle13.3° bat tracking Bat Speed74.1 mph Squared Up24.5% Blast %17.0% EV50— season HR15 AB149 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGuaranteed Rate Field HR Factor1.02 Temp64°F Wind9 mph E vs pitcher NameKris Bubic HandL ERA3.50 HR/90.58
15	Otto Lopez ▸	MIA	MIN	35.6%	86%	67.49	66.01	62.62	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.366 Exit Velo93.0 mph Barrel %13.2% Hard Hit %54.7% Launch Angle8.1° bat tracking Bat Speed72.5 mph Squared Up29.8% Blast %18.3% EV50— season HR4 AB167 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp74°F Wind15 mph S vs pitcher NameZebby Matthews HandR ERA5.56 HR/91.36
16	Liam Hicks ▸	MIA	MIN	35.4%	86%	51.31	66.01	87.33	50.00	27.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.368 Exit Velo88.8 mph Barrel %6.1% Hard Hit %38.8% Launch Angle8.2° bat tracking Bat Speed68.1 mph Squared Up46.1% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR9 AB129 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkloanDepot park HR Factor0.95 Temp74°F Wind15 mph S vs pitcher NameZebby Matthews HandR ERA5.56 HR/91.36
17	Drake Baldwin ▸	ATL	CHC	36.1%	80%	71.51	52.64	48.93	52.18	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.406 Exit Velo89.4 mph Barrel %16.4% Hard Hit %42.6% Launch Angle11.9° bat tracking Bat Speed75.0 mph Squared Up25.5% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR11 AB173 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTruist Park HR Factor1.02 Temp70°F Wind13 mph NW vs pitcher NameBen Brown HandR ERA1.82 HR/90.30
18	Freddie Freeman ▸	LAD	SF	34.2%	83%	78.54	66.01	32.45	50.36	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.416 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %16.7% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle15.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.9 mph Squared Up36.6% Blast %16.8% EV50— season HR4 AB159 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp69°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA3.09 HR/90.21
19	Sal Stewart ▸	CIN	WSH	31.7%	86%	77.16	39.55	45.75	44.50	63.64	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.442 Exit Velo93.4 mph Barrel %21.3% Hard Hit %51.1% Launch Angle13.8° bat tracking Bat Speed70.7 mph Squared Up23.5% Blast %13.4% EV50— season HR10 AB165 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkGreat American Ball Park HR Factor1.15 Temp60°F Wind10 mph N vs pitcher NameFoster Griffin HandL ERA2.08 HR/91.13
20	Dillon Dingler ▸	DET	NYM	30.0%	86%	79.48	70.42	43.14	44.69	7.27	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.428 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %15.8% Hard Hit %57.9% Launch Angle7.4° bat tracking Bat Speed71.5 mph Squared Up31.4% Blast %15.1% EV50— season HR7 AB133 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkComerica Park HR Factor0.84 Temp61°F Wind7 mph SW vs pitcher NameNolan McLean HandR ERA2.78 HR/90.60
21	Alec Burleson ▸	STL	ATH	27.0%	83%	77.15	43.75	80.00	51.57	36.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.422 Exit Velo92.8 mph Barrel %12.1% Hard Hit %51.7% Launch Angle12.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.0 mph Squared Up34.2% Blast %15.8% EV50— season HR6 AB164 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkBusch Stadium HR Factor1.00 Temp70°F Wind6 mph NW vs pitcher NameJacob Lopez HandL ERA6.11 HR/92.04
22	Fernando Tatis Jr. ▸	SD	MIL	31.9%	86%	69.71	63.91	37.50	47.17	21.82	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo95.2 mph Barrel %13.7% Hard Hit %72.5% Launch Angle4.8° bat tracking Bat Speed74.2 mph Squared Up31.1% Blast %21.3% EV50— season HR0 AB151 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkPetco Park HR Factor0.92 Temp64°F Wind7 mph E vs pitcher NameKyle Harrison HandL ERA2.41 HR/90.80
23	Max Muncy ▸	LAD	SF	28.0%	83%	64.69	63.91	58.44	50.36	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.378 Exit Velo92.6 mph Barrel %17.6% Hard Hit %55.9% Launch Angle14.5° bat tracking Bat Speed71.6 mph Squared Up21.8% Blast %7.9% EV50— season HR11 AB136 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp69°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA3.09 HR/90.21
24	Andy Pages ▸	LAD	SF	29.0%	83%	60.89	66.01	50.96	50.36	16.36	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.360 Exit Velo91.9 mph Barrel %8.9% Hard Hit %55.6% Launch Angle19.3° bat tracking Bat Speed72.9 mph Squared Up20.8% Blast %13.8% EV50— season HR9 AB157 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium HR Factor0.89 Temp69°F Wind9 mph SW vs pitcher NameLanden Roupp HandR ERA3.09 HR/90.21
25	Ryan Jeffers ▸	MIN	MIA	29.3%	83%	73.95	41.65	57.92	53.53	40.00	Confirmed
statcast xwOBA0.402 Exit Velo92.7 mph Barrel %15.6% Hard Hit %50.0% Launch Angle18.8° bat tracking Bat Speed72.9 mph Squared Up25.0% Blast %16.2% EV50— season HR6 AB107 OPS0.000 ISO0.000 environment BallparkTarget Field HR Factor1.02 Temp74°F Wind15 mph S vs pitcher NameBraxton Garrett HandL ERA4.20 HR/91.15

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